LIBREVILLE, GABON — Just over 19 months after a bloodless coup ended more than five decades of rule by the Bongo family, the Gabonese populace is preparing to participate in presidential elections, a move that contrasts with the trend of military leaders consolidating power in other African nations.
The frontrunner in Saturday’s election is General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, the individual who spearheaded the peaceful takeover and has since become the dominant figure in Gabonese politics.
Having transitioned from military attire and rank to civilian political dress, the articulate former commander of the elite Republican Guard is competing against seven other candidates.
Enjoying considerable public support due to the ousting of dynastic rule – and benefiting from electoral regulations that disqualified key potential rivals – the 50-year-old appears highly likely to secure an outright majority in the initial round of voting.
His campaign slogan, “C’BON” (a play on the French phrase “c’est bon,” meaning “it’s good”), resonates with the electorate. His prospects of avoiding a second-round runoff are strengthened by the fact that his primary challenger, Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze (known as ACBBN), the former regime’s last prime minister and one of the few senior political or civil society figures who did not align with Oligui Nguema, trails in popularity.
Victory in the election would grant a seven-year presidential mandate and the resources necessary to implement development and modernization reforms at a pace that many crisis-stricken African nations can only aspire to.
Gabon, with a population of just 2.5 million, is an established oil producer and the world’s second-largest exporter of manganese. Its equatorial territory encompasses significant portions of the biodiverse Congo Basin rainforest. Apart from a severe post-election crackdown in the capital, Libreville, in 2016, the country has experienced a largely stable recent history, a contrast to the conflicts and instability that have plagued many neighboring countries.
Oligui Nguema and his Republican Guard encountered no resistance when they seized power on August 30, 2023, mere hours after electoral authorities announced in a late-night broadcast that the incumbent President, Ali Bongo Ondimba, had won a third seven-year term with a reported 64% of the vote.
The credibility of this official result was widely questioned. Ali Bongo, who succeeded his father Omar in 2009, had secured only a narrow and heavily disputed victory in the preceding 2016 election. Public sympathy was initially widespread when he suffered a stroke during a visit to Saudi Arabia two years later and underwent a prolonged recovery.
However, public sentiment shifted when he decided to seek a third term despite his visibly frail health. This decision fueled significant resentment towards the perceived influence and ambitions of his French-born wife, Sylvia, and his son, Nourredin Bongo Valentin, who were seen as powerful figures behind the scenes.
The military’s peaceful intervention to prevent a continuation of the regime, which involved the arrest of Sylvia and Nourredin and the confinement of Ali Bongo to enforced retirement in his private villa, sparked spontaneous celebrations among many Gabonese citizens who had grown weary of what appeared to be an entrenched dynasty. The coup was met with relief by a significant portion of the administrative, political, and civil society elite.
Oligui Nguema strategically capitalized on the situation, working to build a broad base of support for his transitional government. He incorporated former government officials, opposition figures, and previously critical civil society leaders into the power structure or institutions such as the appointed senate.
Political detainees were released, although Ali Bongo’s wife and son remain in custody awaiting trial on corruption charges. Notably, Oligui Nguema has not resorted to the crackdowns on dissent or media freedom that have become commonplace among other military leaders in Francophone Africa, such as those in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
On the diplomatic front, in stark contrast to the assertively anti-Western stance adopted by regimes in West Africa, Oligui Nguema dispatched senior officials to cultivate international goodwill and reassure Gabon’s traditional partners of his commitment to restoring civilian constitutional government within a defined timeframe.
Relations with France, the former colonial power and a previous close ally of the Bongo regime, are currently positive. The two governments recently agreed to transform Camp de Gaulle, the long-standing French military base in Gabon, into a new joint training center.
Demonstrating political acumen and a connection with popular sentiment, Oligui Nguema has responded to public demands for change by accelerating public works and previously delayed projects.
Furthermore, at a time of increasing popular support across Francophone Africa for a more assertive defense of national interests, his government has acquired the Gabonese assets of several foreign oil companies, including the UK’s Tullow.
To alleviate constraints on government finances, his administration has borrowed on the regional money market while also strategically seeking to reassure international partners. A significant portion of the $520 million (£461 million) raised through a Eurobond in February has been allocated to paying off existing debt, and the government has also set aside funds to clear some arrears owed to the World Bank.
However, if, as is widely expected, Oligui Nguema is elected as Gabon’s head of state on Saturday, he will face considerable challenges. The public’s strong desire for change meant that the transitional period was, in many respects, the easier phase. There has been limited public pressure restricting his room for maneuver.
There was broad consensus on incorporating a ban on dynastic succession into the new constitution. When Oligui Nguema dismissed concerns from some parliamentarians regarding the concentration of executive power by abolishing the post of prime minister, there was little significant opposition.
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This concentration of power, however, means that the full weight of responsibility for meeting public expectations will now rest solely on his shoulders. Prominent political and civil society figures, including veteran opposition leader Alexandre Barro-Chambrier and rainforest campaigner Marc Ona Essangui, have joined his transitional administration or political movement, the Rassemblement des Bâtisseurs (RDB), and are likely to hold important positions post-election.
Ultimately, the focus will remain on Oligui Nguema himself, and he will confront complex issues. Gabon has long presented itself as a leader in rainforest conservation and its rich biodiversity, earning international recognition for its effective use of climate finance mechanisms – in 2023, it became the first sub-Saharan African country to complete a debt-for-nature swap.
This strategic environmental approach must be balanced with the economic imperative to fully utilize other natural resources, particularly minerals and oil, and with the needs of rural communities seeking to protect their hunting and farming rights. Urban populations, especially in Libreville, home to nearly half of the country’s population, require more jobs and improved services in a nation whose social development record has been underwhelming given its relative economic prosperity.
Trade unionist Jean Rémy Yama, excluded from the presidential race due to his inability to produce his father’s birth certificate (a nomination requirement), commands a significant following and could potentially articulate popular frustrations.
For Oligui Nguema, the most demanding phase of his leadership is just beginning.
